2Customize Your Scenario
Fine-tune your scenario with four key variables. These inputs affect your monthly payment, equity growth, and all-in cost of ownership. The model recalculates everything instantly.
3Results — Your Ownership Model
Monthly Payment
$1,191
Principal + Interest. Your fixed obligation every month for 30 years.
Down Payment
$71K
Capital invested on day one. Becomes equity immediately.
Equity Accumulated
$137K
Home value minus remaining loan. This is what you own today.
All-In Cost
$299K
Cumulative interest + taxes + maintenance. Every dollar spent that did not build equity.
Net Gain
+$44K
Equity minus all-in cost. Positive means homeownership is building real wealth.
VERDICT
Homeownership is Outperforming Rent
Your net equity exceeds cumulative rent payments. Forced savings through principal paydown, leverage on an appreciating asset, and rent savings are compounding in your favor.
5 yrs owned
4What If You Had Invested Instead?
This section answers the most common argument against buying: "You would have been better off renting and investing the down payment."
To test this fairly, we calculate a net position for each path — what you actually kept after all costs.
Homeownership Net = your equity minus every dollar spent (down payment + interest + taxes + maintenance).
Renting + Investing Net = your S&P 500 investment today minus every dollar spent on rent.
The winner is whoever kept more money.
Path A — Homeownership Net
▲ Home Equity Today
$137K
▼ Interest Paid to Bank
-$67K
▼ Property Taxes Paid
-$14K
▼ Maintenance Paid
-$14K
= Net Homeownership Wealth
+$44K
Path B — Renting + Investing Net
▲ Down Payment in S&P 500 Today
$116K
▼ Cumulative Rent Paid
-$93K
= Net Renting + Investing Wealth
+$23K
Uses real S&P 500 annual returns — not a flat average
Year-by-Year Net Wealth Comparison
■ Homeownership Net
Starts at zero on day one. Grows as your home appreciates and your mortgage balance shrinks. Reduced by cumulative interest, taxes, and maintenance. This is your real wealth from buying.
■ S&P 500 Index Net
The down payment invested using real annual S&P 500 returns (not a flat average). Rent is subtracted each year because you still had to live somewhere. This is your real wealth from renting and investing.
5Home Prices and the Stock Market
Compare 63 years of U.S. home price appreciation against S&P 500 annual returns. Your purchase year is marked in red. Use the decade filters to see how different eras performed — and whether the stock market or real estate was the stronger asset in each period.
6My Analysis & Conclusions
The data from 1963 to 2026 tells a clear story: U.S. median home prices have appreciated 2,352% over 63 years. No single decade produced a permanent decline. Even the 2008 crash recovered within a few years, and prices went on to hit all-time highs by 2021.
But homeownership is not automatically an asset. The people who lost in 2008 were not wrong about real estate. They were wrong about leverage, timing, and liquidity. The ones who bought and held for 10 or more years almost always came out ahead.
At today's numbers ($417K median, 6.43% rate), buying is expensive by historical standards. But every generation said that. Every generation that bought and held eventually won.
- Homeownership provides leverage — a 20% down payment controls 100% of an appreciating asset
- Forced savings — every mortgage payment builds equity unlike rent which builds nothing
- Tax advantages — mortgage interest deduction and capital gains exclusion on sale
- Inflation hedge — your payment stays fixed while rent rises 3 to 5% per year
- The break-even point vs renting is typically between years 5 and 10
- People who stay under 5 years often lose money after transaction costs
- Local markets matter enormously — national averages mask huge regional differences
NAR DataHUD / CensusFreddie Mac
1963 to 2026Interactive Model